Hello friends, I hope you’re doing great! I have noticed that in the past weeks my posts were a little negative and gloomy as I reflected on societal issues like declining birth rates or the dark side of social media. I therefore decided to take a more optimistic topic this week, and asked the help of my good friend Alessandro (who is a renewable energy expert, besides being one of my closest friends) to help me since the topic is a bit technical. The idea for this post came from the news of the Power Purchase Agreement signed between Microsoft and Helion, a really cool fusion energy producing startup.
In this post I provide an overview of what’s happening in energy production, specifically in fusion energy, and why that’s super exciting. While reflecting on the topic, and listening to this great podcast, I began wondering “ok but, besides being excited, what can I do as a non-scientist to accelerate this revolution?”. I made 2 notes for myself:
We need to create an “Apollo-like” program for fusion energy. As Dr. Budil says “building a public program that's big enough to drive these advances fast is the difference between Fusion Energy in 20 years and Fusion Energy in 50 years”. We have done this in the 70s for space exploration, we need to do it now.
Technical challenges aren’t the only obstacle to fusion energy developments, we need to restore public faith in science. Recent years have seen a worrying decline in public trust in science, exacerbated by factors like the Covid-19 pandemic and the rise of populism. As we strive to unlock fusion's potential, it's crucial to rebuild public faith in science. Science is our best tool for understanding and shaping the world. Through it, we've made remarkable strides in technology, medicine, and energy. To fully harness scientific innovation and tackle pressing global challenges, we must restore trust in science.
But before diving into fusion energy and why it is important, let me start a bit differently from usual.. with a short story:
In a universe not too distant from our own, there exists a miraculous source of energy. This energy source, unlike anything we've ever known, is waste-free and seemingly eternal. It powers entire worlds, bathing them in a warm, radiant glow. It fuels advanced civilizations, enabling them to build towering cities, traverse vast distances, and harness the power of technology in ways we can only dream of.
This energy source is so abundant that it's practically limitless. It's so cheap that it's virtually free. It's so clean that it leaves no trace of pollution in its wake. It's the lifeblood of the universe, the engine that drives progress, the beacon that lights the way towards a brighter future.
This might sound like the stuff of science fiction, a fantastical tale spun by a dreamer gazing at the stars. But this is no fiction. This energy source exists, and it's closer than you might think. It's the sun, the heart of our solar system, which has been powering our world with nuclear fusion for millions of years. As we embark on our journey to harness the power of fusion here on Earth, we look to the sun for inspiration, a shining testament to the boundless potential of fusion energy.
Why is fusion important?
Fusion energy is a form of power generation that mimics the process occurring in the sun and stars, where light atomic nuclei combine under extremely high temperatures to form heavier nuclei, releasing a large amount of energy. This is fundamentally different from traditional fission nuclear energy production, where heavy atomic nuclei, like uranium or plutonium, are split into smaller parts, also releasing energy. Unlike fission, fusion energy production has the potential to provide virtually limitless, clean energy with no high-level radioactive waste, making it a highly desirable goal for future power generation.Why is fusion important?
A few years ago, it might have been controversial to argue that the world should use more energy. The climate argument thrusted in the opposite direction – consume less energy and transition whatever energy we still need to use to clean, renewable sources like solar and wind. Degrowth is a losing argument, and thankfully, it is in the process of being replaced by a more optimistic one: the call for energy superabundance.
Instead of consuming less energy, this argument goes, we should produce unimaginable amounts of clean energy from all of the sources we can: solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear fission, and one day, fusion. With practically unlimited cheap energy, we’ll be able to suck CO2 out of the air, mitigate the effects of climate change, and have enough left over to meaningfully improve the quality of life for billions of people around the world. I, for one, like this argument!
Energy use is the bound of civilization. If you increase it, civilization grows and progresses. If you limit it, civilization stagnates. If you diminish it, civilization crumbles. Energy is the most fundamental determinant of a society’s success. It feeds us, houses us, wins wars, powers technology, and dictates policy. Even money is a mere proxy for energy.
Cheap, superabundant energy could make all of our environmental problems disappear. We could capture all excess CO2 in the atmosphere, desalinate and clean all water sources, achieve high enough temperatures to zap away waste, produce more fertilizer and food, and construct sustainable infrastructure.
The Promise of Fusion Energy
In recent years, we have witnessed a significant shift in the way we perceive and utilize energy. The quest for renewable, low-cost, and environmentally friendly energy sources has led us to explore various alternatives, with fusion energy emerging as a promising candidate.
The concept of fusion energy has been around for decades, often hailed as the "Holy Grail" of energy. It promises to power the world cheaply and abundantly, with minimal environmental impact. However, the journey towards achieving commercial fusion energy has been a long and arduous one, often met with skepticism and cynicism. The joke in the fusion community is that fusion power is "always 30 years away." But recently there has been developments suggesting that this may no longer be the case.
In Dec’22, scientists at the USA government-funded National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore made headlines when they achieved fusion ignition, or scientific energy breakeven, for the first time in a controlled environment. This means they got more energy out of the fusion reaction than they spent on the laser energy used to drive it, a significant milestone in the journey towards commercial fusion energy. The world rejoiced at this breakthrough, but it also served as a sobering reminder that commercial-scale fusion power might still be decades away.
Despite these challenges, there is a renewed sense of optimism in the fusion community. We are at a crucial handoff point, from public to private, thanks to advancements in computing and machine learning, better magnets and materials, and a diverse range of technical approaches that are finally becoming feasible. This transition is being fueled by an influx of capital for startups working on fusion energy.
Companies like Helion, Commonwealth Fusion Systems, TAE Technologies, General Fusion, and Zap Energy, armed with $5 billion in funding, are leading the charge in what might be called Fusion Race 2.0. These companies are leveraging decades of research and new tools to make commercial fusion a reality, with the potential to capture a significant portion of the $15 trillion global energy market.
This transition from public to private has the potential to revolutionize the fusion industry, much like SpaceX revitalized the space economy. The commercialization of space has accelerated timelines for sci-fi visions like asteroid mining, space manufacturing, space hotels, and even Mars habitation. Similarly, we may be at a similar point in fusion's evolution, with commercial fusion potentially powering our homes within the next decade.
The U.S. government's recent legislative actions, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS Act, and the IRA, have spurred approximately $200bn in investments in the energy transition sector, encompassing batteries, electric vehicles, renewables, and hydrogen. The IRA's climate-related provisions alone could lead to over $800bn in public climate spending, potentially catalyzing up to $1.6trn in decarbonization investments over the next decade. This surge in investment, coupled with falling costs for wind and solar power, suggests that the U.S. is at a pivotal moment in its energy transition journey.
The Case of Helion
The fusion industry has seen a surge in private investment in recent years, with companies like Helion leading the charge. Helion, a nuclear fusion company led by Sam Altman (yep, the same guy who leads OpenAI!!), has been making waves in the industry with its ambitious goals and innovative approach.
Recently, Helion made headlines by signing a Power Purchase Agreement with Microsoft, marking the first time there's a commercial deadline (2028) on scale electricity by nuclear fusion. This deal is a significant milestone for the fusion industry, as it sets a tangible target for the production of commercial-scale fusion energy.
But why is Helion such a relevant and exciting company in the fusion industry? The answer lies in its innovative approach to fusion energy and its commitment to making fusion a commercially viable source of power. Helion's approach differs from the standard fusion processes: it instead involves charge particles pushing back on a magnet to drive an electrical current, offering a simpler and more efficient system compared to other fusion projects. It also avoids the use of dangerous nuclear materials and eliminates the need for handling hazardous waste.
Helion's deal with Microsoft is based on its commitment to start producing and providing electricity through fusion in the next 5 years. This is a bold commitment, considering that neither Helion nor any other organization in the world has ever produced commercial-scale electricity through fusion. However, this deal signifies a shift in the fusion industry, with private companies taking the lead in pushing the boundaries of what's possible.
Sam Altman, the leader of Helion, is no stranger to pushing boundaries. In addition to leading the generative AI renaissance, Altman's vision for fusion energy is ambitious and forward-thinking. As Altman puts it, the promise of fusion is that it will "power the world and to do it extremely cheaply." Such abundant, cheap energy would have second and third-order effects on progress that are hard to predict.
However, the path to commercial fusion is not without its challenges. The main hurdle is, of course, the technical feasibility of producing commercial-scale electricity through fusion. Despite this, the deal between Helion and Microsoft represents a huge, far-from-certain bet on nuclear fusion, signaling a renewed faith in the potential of fusion energy.
And Helion is not the only interesting company in this space: there’s also a very interesting french company (with italian founder) working on a cutting-hedge technology in this space.
The Challenges and Potential Solutions in the Path to Commercial Fusion
Fusion energy, the process that powers the sun, has long been a dream for scientists. The idea of creating a mini-sun on Earth, producing abundant, clean energy, is undoubtedly exciting. However, turning this dream into reality is a complex task.
The main challenge lies in achieving 'ignition' - a state where the energy produced by the fusion reaction is greater than the energy used to initiate it. This requires combining light atomic nuclei at extremely high temperatures to form heavier nuclei, releasing a large amount of energy.
The incredible milestone reached by the NIF in December was a scientific breakthrough, no doubts about it. However, the energy produced was modest, equivalent to that of an AA battery, emphasizing the gap between scientific success and commercial viability.
Despite these hurdles, there's a silver lining. Technological advancements, particularly in computing and machine learning, are paving the way for innovative fusion approaches. Improved magnets and materials are enabling the creation of smaller, more manageable reactors. Moreover, the diverse strategies explored by different companies increase the likelihood of a breakthrough.
Private companies, like Helion, are at the forefront of this endeavor. With substantial funding and a wealth of research, they're pushing the boundaries of fusion research, bringing fresh ideas, and setting ambitious targets that are driving progress.
Why is fusion the Holy Grail of energy production?
The potential impact of commercial fusion on the global energy market and the environment is profound. Fusion energy, if realized, could revolutionize the way we generate and consume electricity, with far-reaching implications for our economy, society, and the planet.
Firstly, fusion energy could significantly disrupt the $15 trillion global energy market. Unlike traditional energy sources, fusion energy is not subject to geopolitical constraints or resource scarcity. The primary fuel for fusion, hydrogen isotopes, is abundant and widely available, making fusion energy a potentially limitless source of power. This could lead to a democratization of energy, with countries no longer dependent on fossil fuel-rich regions for their energy needs.
Secondly, fusion energy could play a crucial role in combating climate change. Fusion reactions produce no greenhouse gases, making fusion energy a clean and sustainable source of power. The widespread adoption of fusion energy could significantly reduce our carbon footprint and help us meet our climate goals.
Moreover, fusion energy could have a transformative impact on our economy and society. The availability of cheap, abundant energy could spur innovation and economic growth, much like the advent of cheap oil did in the 20th century. It could enable new technologies and industries, from electric aviation to energy-intensive manufacturing processes, creating jobs and prosperity in the process.
However, it's important to note that these benefits are contingent on overcoming the significant technical challenges associated with commercial fusion. While companies like Helion are making strides in this direction, there is still a long way to go before fusion energy becomes a reality.
The Future of Fusion Energy
As we look towards the future, the promise of fusion energy is more tantalizing than ever. With significant advancements in technology, an influx of private investment, and a renewed sense of optimism, the dream of commercial fusion energy is inching closer to reality.
The future of fusion energy is likely to be shaped by a confluence of factors. Advances in computing and machine learning are enabling new approaches to fusion, while better magnets and materials are making it possible to achieve the conditions necessary for fusion in smaller, more manageable reactors. At the same time, the diverse range of technical approaches being explored by different companies increases the chances of finding a viable path to commercial fusion.
However, the future of fusion energy is not without its challenges. The path to commercial fusion is fraught with technical hurdles, and the timeline for achieving commercial fusion remains uncertain. Despite these challenges, the fusion community remains optimistic. The joke that fusion power is "always 30 years away" may no longer hold true, as we find ourselves at a crucial handoff point from public to private.
The future of fusion energy is bright. While there are significant challenges to overcome, the potential benefits of fusion energy - from disrupting the global energy market to combating climate change - make it a pursuit worth striving for. As we continue to push the boundaries of what's possible, the dream of powering our homes with fusion energy may soon become a reality.
I wish you all a fantastic weekend!
Fair point on counter arguments, will look for those for a follow-up post!
On the resources I avoid adding too much cause I feel it’s too “heavy” but I have 2 key ones I have listened to that I would recommend:
1. The podcast I linked, the interviewed is the chief of the lab that reached fusion ignition. And she had a lot of super interesting takes on AI and fusion: https://podcasts.apple.com/it/podcast/possible/id1677184070?i=1000605312353
2. This interview of Sam Altman talking about Helion and why he decided to invest $375M of his money: https://youtu.be/57OU18cogJI
Great article, giving visibility on a very promising technology! In these gloomy days, some positive perspectives are needed. I am only left wondering if there are counter arguments - beyond the tech challenges - against fusion and the infinite abundance of cheap energy. Also, would be cool to have some more links/resources, to go deeper into some of the concepts that are only lightly referenced (e.g. how AI can accelerate fusion development). Thanks!